2024: The year of political changes: surprising defeats and expected continuity
The year 2024 will see significant political changes across the world, with many countries seeing a change in government or leadership.
These changes have had a profound impact on domestic policies and international relations. In addition, there has been a marked trend toward the rise of right-wing parties, reflecting broader changes in the global political landscape.
Bangladesh
Prime Minister: Sheikh Hasina (Awami League)
Defeated: Khaleda Zia (Bangladesh Nationalist Party, BNP) and other opposition leaders
Sheikh Hasina’s continued leadership ensures stability, but raises concerns over democratic backsliding due to allegations of voter suppression and political violence. Her victory was attributed to her administration’s economic achievements and infrastructure development, although this was tarnished by claims of electoral manipulation.
Political instability in Bangladesh affects South Asian geopolitics, particularly its relations with India and China, and regional security dynamics.
Bhutan
Prime Minister: Tsering Tobgay (Druk Phuensum Tshogpa, DPT)
Defeated: Lotay Tsering (Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa, DNT)
Tshering Tobgay’s election marks an important political change. His leadership will focus on sustainable development and maintaining Bhutan’s balanced foreign policy and promoting good relations with both India and China.
The election was influenced by voters’ concerns over economic management and public service delivery under the previous government.
Netherlands
Potential Prime Minister: Geert Wilders (Party for Freedom, PVV)
Defeated: Mark Rutte’s VVD and other centrist and left-wing parties
Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV has emerged as the largest party in the 2024 elections. His victory reflects a shift towards nationalist and anti-immigration sentiments among Dutch voters.
Given the political fragmentation, the challenge now is to form a coalition government. Wilders’ victory signals a move towards more stringent immigration policies and a possible re-evaluation of the Netherlands’ role within the EU.
Taiwan
chairman: Lai Ching-te (Democratic Progressive Party, DPP)
Succeeded: Tsai Ing-wen (DPP)
Defeated: Hou You-yee (Kuomintang, KMT)
Lai Ching-te replaced Tsai Ing-wen, marking a continuity of DPP leadership. Lai’s pro-sovereignty stance and focus on strengthening Taiwan’s security led to his election victory.
His policies will have a huge impact on cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s relationship with major powers, especially the United States. His victory symbolizes continued resistance to Beijing’s pressure and a strengthening of Taiwan’s international presence.
Indonesia
chairman: Prabowo Subianto (Gerindra Party)
Defeated: Ganjar Pranawo (PDI-P) and Anies Baswedan (Independent)
Prabowo Subianto’s victory marks a significant shift in Indonesian politics. His campaign focused on economic reform, national security, and corruption eradication.
Prabowo’s administration will need to address these issues while advancing Indonesia’s strategic role in ASEAN and balancing relations between the US and China. Prabowo’s victory also signals the end of Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) two-term presidency, as Jokowi supported Prabowo’s candidacy in order to influence the post-presidency political landscape.
Pakistan
Prime Minister: Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, PML-N)
Defeated: Imran Khan (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI)
Shahbaz Sharif secured his position in a politically charged atmosphere by defeating Imran Khan. The formation of his government was facilitated by an alliance with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, which provided crucial external support. This collaboration ended days of political uncertainty following inconclusive election results.
The PML-N and PPP together have sufficient numbers to form a federal government, reflecting the importance of strategic alliances in Pakistani politics. Sharif’s administration faces many challenges, including economic reform and managing the threat of terrorism, which are crucial to maintaining regional stability.
Maldives
chairman: Mohammed Muizzu (People’s National Congress, PNC)
Defeated: Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (Maldivian Democratic Party, MDP)
Mohamed Muizzu’s pro-China stance marks a significant shift in Maldives’ foreign policy. His party’s landslide victory reflects voters’ support for reducing Indian influence and strengthening ties with China.
Muizzu’s government has taken steps to remove Indian military personnel, reflecting his campaign slogan of “Kick India Out”, and is expected to improve relations with China, which will have a significant impact on regional dynamics.
Iran
Supreme leader: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
chairman: Mohammad Mokhber (Conservative)
Defeated: Various reformist and liberal candidates
Following the death of Ebrahim Raisi, the election of Mohammad Mokhber as president has reestablished conservative dominance in Iran. His administration is expected to maintain strict policies, but the role of the Assembly of Experts in selecting the next supreme leader adds a layer of uncertainty. This could affect Iran’s long-term foreign policy and relations with global powers.
Mexico
chairman: Claudia Sheinbaum (Morena)
Defeated: X³chitl Gálvez (opposition coalition)
Claudia Sheinbaum’s election marks a continuation of AMLO’s left-wing policies, and she is set to become Mexico’s first female president.
His victory was driven by his promises to maintain the social welfare programs and economic reforms introduced by AMLO. This will have an impact on Mexico’s domestic policies and its important relationship with the US on trade, immigration and security.
South Africa
chairman: Cyril Ramaphosa (African National Congress, ANC)
Defeated: John Steenhuisen (Democratic Alliance, DA) and Julius Malema (Economic Freedom Fighters, EFF)
The ANC lost its absolute majority for the first time since the end of apartheid, necessitating coalition talks to form a government. Despite the ANC’s weakened position, Ramaphosa managed to retain his role as president. His administration faces significant challenges including economic reform, high unemployment and tackling corruption. The ANC has committed not to abandon Ramaphosa in coalition talks, and has stressed stability within its leadership.
Iceland
chairman: Halla Tamasdíttir
Defeated: Katrn Jakobsdattir and Halla Hrund Logsdattir
Businesswoman Halla Tomasdóttir has been elected as the new President of Iceland. She will replace Guðni Th. Jónsson. Her victory over former Prime Minister Katrún Jakobsdóttir and Halla Hrund Lögdóttir has made her the second female President of Iceland.
Although the position is largely ceremonial, the president has veto power, which can substantially affect legislation. Tómasdóttir’s platform emphasizes unity, international cooperation, and environmental responsibility, which aligns with her extensive background in business and social entrepreneurship.
Upcoming Elections and Awaiting Results
India
Prime Minister: Narendra Modi (Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP)
Major opposition leaders: Rahul Gandhi (Indian National Congress, INC)
India’s general election has concluded, with exit polls predicting a clear majority for Modi’s BJP. This expected victory would mark a third term for Modi, a significant blow to the united opposition coalition.
Modi’s victory is likely to give a boost to his government’s ongoing economic and infrastructure initiatives. The BJP’s continued leadership will have a significant impact on India’s economic policies, foreign relations, especially with China and Pakistan, and its stance on global issues such as climate change and international trade.
United Kingdom
Prime Minister: Rishi Sunak (Conservative Party)
Major opposition leaders: Keir Starmer (Labour Party)
The UK general election will determine the future direction of the country’s domestic and foreign policies. Key issues include the economy, the post-Brexit situation and climate policies.
These consequences will affect Britain’s role in global politics, particularly in relation to the EU and the US.
United States of america
chairman: Joe Biden (Democratic Party)
Major opposition leaders: Donald Trump (Republican Party)
The US presidential election on November 5, 2024 will be crucial for the country’s future domestic and foreign policies. Its outcome will have a significant impact on international relations, especially relations with China and Russia, and key global issues such as climate change and trade.
Rise of far-right governments
The year 2024 has seen the rise of right-wing parties to power in various countries. This trend reflects broader changes in global political sentiments, where nationalism and conservative ideologies are becoming more prominent.
Europe
In Europe, right-wing parties have made significant gains in several countries. This shift is evident in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders’ PVV has emerged as the largest party and is now trying to form a government. The growing influence of right-wing ideologies in Europe poses challenges to the solidarity of the EU and its policies on immigration, human rights and environmental sustainability.
latin america
In Latin America, a trend towards conservative governance is seen in countries such as Mexico, where the presidency of Claudia Sheinbaum continues AMLO’s leftist policies. The rise of far-right sentiment in the region reflects widespread dissatisfaction with existing political arrangements and a desire for change.
The political changes expected in 2024, including changes in governments and the rise of right-wing parties, will have far-reaching effects on global politics. These changes will affect domestic policies, regional dynamics, and international relations, shaping everything from economic strategies to security.
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