AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri’s GOP caucuses

WASHINGTON: The Missouri Republican Party will hold a presidential caucus on Saturday, giving voters their only chance to decide who should represent the party in November’s presidential election. The contest is one of the last opportunities for candidates to shape the race for the GOP nomination before Super Tuesday, when 15 states will hold Republican contests on March 5, the most contests of any day on the primary calendar. .

Former President Donald Trump looks to extend his streak of primary and caucus victories this year, while his former UN ambassador Nikki Haley seeks her first victory of the campaign. Trump prevailed twice under the state’s old presidential primary system, first in 2016, when he barely edged Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and again in 2020, when he won 97% of the vote as the incumbent.

The caucus will also begin the process of awarding 51 of Missouri’s 54 Republican delegates to the Republican National Convention this summer.

The caucus was held after GOP Governor Mike Parson signed the 2022 legislation that, among other things, canceled the planned March 12 presidential primary. Lawmakers have failed to reinstate the primary, despite calls to do so by state Republican and Democratic party leaders. Democrats will hold party-run primaries on March 23.

A look at what to expect on election night:

The caucuses are scheduled to be held at 10 a.m. CST, which is 11 a.m. EST.

Apart from administrative positions such as caucus chair and secretary, this is the only contest to be decided that day. There is no “ballot” in the traditional sense, as caucus-goers form groups to express their preferences, but the candidates eligible for nomination to caucus are Trump, Haley, and Florida businessman David Stuckenberg. Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley ended his campaign on Tuesday, and the state party has had a practice of removing former candidates from the caucus mix.

Caucus-goers must be registered to vote in Missouri and sign a pledge declaring “allegiance to the Missouri Republican Party.” Caucus rules state: “Only strong and loyal Republican voters who reside in the district concerned and are registered to vote shall be permitted to participate in any caucus or convention.”

For years, Missouri voters did not register by party, but the same 2022 election law that repealed the presidential primary also gave voters the option to “affiliate” with a party through their local county clerk’s office. found. While the state party does not require caucus-goers to officially affiliate with the Republican Party through this new process, it has advised county party chairs and caucus staffers that voters who did not want to affiliate with the Democratic Party. If selected, they may be barred from participating on Saturday.

Missouri has 54 Republican representatives. Fifty-one of them are awarded to candidates through a month-long process starting on Saturday. Eleven delegates will be awarded to candidates at the statewide level, while five delegates will be awarded from each of Missouri’s eight congressional districts. In what is known as the “caucus-convention” system, a total of 51 delegates are at stake. The remaining three delegates are the state party chair and Missouri’s Republican National Committee member and committeewoman, who can support any candidate they wish regardless of caucus results.

Caucus-goers will express their preferences for president, and those results are ultimately used to determine the number of delegates given to candidates at the statewide and congressional district level. At both the statewide and district levels, all delegates at stake are awarded to the candidate who receives majority support. If no candidate receives a majority, delegates are allocated proportionally among the candidates receiving at least 15% support, with some minor exceptions.

The individuals who will serve as delegates to the national convention will be selected at the Congress’ district conventions on April 6 and the state convention on May 4.

Missouri’s GOP caucus vaguely resembles the format that Iowa Democrats used for decades before eliminating it in favor of a mail-by-vote primary this year.

Unlike state-run primaries, participants must appear in person and participate in a party meeting during a limited time frame, rather than simply vote and leave. Voting is not done by secret ballot. Instead caucus-goers move around the room and form groups in support of their favorite presidential candidate.

Any candidate group that comprises less than 15% of that caucus’s total attendance in the first round of voting must disband, and its members will have the option to join another candidate group. The number of people in newly formed candidate groups is used to determine how many delegates each campaign will send to district-level conventions in April as well as the state convention in May. Delegates to those spring conventions will formally allocate national convention delegates to the presidential candidates.

If a candidate receives the support of more than 50% of the total attendance at a caucus site, the candidate wins all district and state convention delegates at stake in that caucus. If a candidate wins the caucus with less than 50%, proportionality rules based on the number of delegates at stake apply.

The Associated Press will report a statewide winner based on the preferences of caucus participants. The vote results will not reflect the raw votes of all caucus-goers. Instead, the vote will be expressed based on how many of the 924 state delegates each candidate has won, as well as how many district delegates each candidate has won in the eight congressional districts.

The AP does not speculate and will declare a winner only when it determines that there is no scenario that will allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will also explain the reasons.

The last time Missouri Republicans held a caucus to allocate delegates in a disputed presidential campaign was in 2012, but the format was different and there were no binding presidential preference results to provide a meaningful voting comparison for this year.

Early and absentee voting is not allowed in the caucus. Caucus goers must participate in person at the caucus site.

As of November 2022, there were approximately 4.3 million voters registered in Missouri.

Caucuses are called without difficulty. Chairs of individual caucus sites must report their results to the state party no later than 5pm CST (6p EST). The state party has not provided a more detailed vote-counting timeline beyond those broad parameters.

Given the number of items on the agenda, the length of time allotted to form and reform preference groups, and the potential for delays as caucus staff and participants adjust to an unfamiliar system, even the most efficiently run caucuses It may also take at least one to two hours. Hours to conduct all your business. In Iowa, the caucuses lasted up to three hours in some precincts.

AP will start reporting results as soon as they are available.

As of Saturday, there will be 135 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and 248 days until the November general election.

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Associated Press writer David A. in Jefferson City, Missouri. Lieb contributed to this report.

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(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed – The Associated Press)