Claudia Sheinbaum’s Morena party continues to dominate Mexico’s elections

The margin that elected Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico’s president was the largest in decades, and as votes continued to be counted on Monday, it became clear that Mexico’s leftist ruling party and its allies may be in a position to reshape the country’s political landscape.

He is on the verge of securing a large enough majority in Congress to pass proposals to change the constitution, worrying the opposition, including advancing a controversial bill that could eliminate key checks on presidential power.

Ms. Sheinbaum, the first woman and the first Jewish person to be elected president, beat her opponent on Sunday by 30 percentage points or more, early results showed. She and her Morena party had been expected to win, but their landslide victory trumped pre-election polls.

“We are putting our full strength into these elections,” Mario Delgado, head of the Morena party, said in a speech on Sunday.

The election serves as a referendum on the nearly six-year term of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, indicating that a solid majority of voters support his leadership of the country.

Preliminary results showed MORENA had captured seven of the nine gubernatorial seats – including the most prominent one, that of Mexico City – and won a majority in at least 22 of the 32 state legislatures.

During Mr. López Obrador’s tenure, millions of people were lifted out of poverty, the minimum wage was doubled and pensions were made available to many more Mexicans. But he also empowered the military, prioritized fossil fuels and took measures that critics say could undermine Mexico’s democratic institutions.

Still, despite concerns over such moves, most voters did not shy away from supporting Ms. Sheinbaum, a disciple of Mr. López Obrador, and her party.

John Feely said, “The voters gave Claudia a mandate that few had the courage to predict.” Deputy Chief of Mission at the United States Embassy in Mexico from 2009 to 2012. “Claudia cleaned house.”

For some critics, however, the rise of the Morena party to tighter control over both houses of Congress has already raised concerns.

“I had dismissed the possibility that Morena would have a blank check to do whatever she wanted. But that’s what we’re seeing now,” said Roberta Lajous, a Mexican diplomat who has served as the country’s ambassador to four countries. “The democratic system has been used to limit democracy.”

The systemic changes Mr. López Obrador has proposed include, among other things, reducing the number of legislators in Congress; eliminating several independent regulators, handing their functions over to federal agencies; and making Supreme Court justices subject to election by popular vote. He is also seeking to have electoral officials elected by popular vote, a measure that critics warn would undermine their independence.

The opposition in Congress has so far thwarted those ambitions.

“There seems to be a consensus among a large part of the population that ‘go ahead with your project,’” said Sergio López Ayllón, a law professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico who has advised institutions such as the Mexican Senate and Supreme Court.

But one piece of the puzzle is still missing for Morena and the two smaller parties in its electoral coalition to take full control of legislation. Early results suggest the coalition will win a two-thirds majority in the Chamber of Deputies, allowing it to push through constitutional amendments, but it could fall short of that mark by a few seats in the Senate. If that happens, it may still be able to secure a majority by striking deals with other lawmakers, according to legal experts.

“They will have to negotiate something,” Mr. López Ayllón said. And if they win the necessary seats in the Senate, he added, “it will open a path that will lead to constitutional changes very quickly.”

One unknown is how committed Ms. Sheinbaum, who will take office on Oct. 1, really is to implementing the changes Mr. López Obrador introduced in February, and which he promptly adopted. Although she has publicly defended the proposals, analysts have also said she had little choice but to fully support Mr. López Obrador on the campaign trail.

Election officials are expected to declare the final results of the election sometime this week.

The Mexican peso fell more than 3 percent on Monday, a rare drop for a currency that has recently remained strong against the dollar.The jitters in financial markets reflect broader uneasiness about a potential erosion of checks and balances that could expand the government’s role in the economy, according to financial strategists.

Roberta Jacobson, the former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, said a major concern for businesses is “the virtual erosion of the independence of everyone from the Supreme Court to the election of judges and regulators.”

Critics say the selection of judges could put political pressure on them, making them beholden to political leaders and less inclined to rule against their political patrons. Ms. Jacobson said the move could hurt companies’ ability to get a fair hearing on disputes with regulators or the judiciary.

“What you’re doing is you’re retaining those bodies but eliminating any semblance of independence by putting their functions into the executive branch,” he said of the regulators. “That would eliminate any pretense of independence and shift that power to the president.”

Ms. Sheinbaum has signaled an openness to working with the private sector, saying in a speech to supporters Monday morning, “We will respect business freedom and conscientiously promote and facilitate domestic and foreign private investment.”

Ms. Jacobson said it’s possible he would prioritize the measure, “given its importance to López Obrador’s project and legacy.” But, she added: “The other possibility is that he abandons it without ever advancing it to a vote.”

Another scenario is raising concerns among government critics. The new Congress in September will briefly overlap with the last month of Mr. López Obrador’s term, giving him a chance to push through structural changes if the ruling party wins a majority in the Senate.