Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: What changed for BJP in Uttar Pradesh?

The biggest setback and surprise for the BJP in this Lok Sabha election has come from Uttar Pradesh, where the ruling party is losing half of its seats. The BJP had set a target of 70-75 seats to secure a majority after the inauguration of the Ram temple, but the election results have surprised everyone. On the ground during the election, Mid-Day sensed some local discontent over several issues including inflation, paper leaks, destruction of crops by stray animals and unemployment. While people in rural areas were satisfied with the way UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath handled law and order, the caste-based political arithmetic of the Bharat Block worked well. The BJP under Narendra Modi won 72 seats in 2014 and 62 in 2019, but it seems UP is no longer voting only in the name of Modi.

According to Election Commission of India (ECI) data, the opposition, especially the Samajwadi Party (SP), played its cards well and won 35 seats, while till 11 pm they were leading in 2 seats, while the BJP won 33 seats and the Congress won 6 seats. The selection of candidates from all castes, communities and religions, especially by SP national president Akhilesh Yadav, played a key role in their lead in the Hindi belt. A notable example of this was Faizabad, which includes Ayodhya.

Despite the inauguration of the Ram temple, the BJP lost the seat. SP candidate Awadhesh Prasad, a prominent Dalit leader and a nine-time MLA from various constituencies in Faizabad, gave a tough fight to BJP’s Lallu Singh. It was an unreserved seat, but despite this Yadav fielded a Dalit candidate and it worked in his favour and he won the seat with 5,54,289 votes. Singh’s controversial remarks about changing the Constitution had angered Dalit voters and Prasad’s Dalit background helped him achieve a remarkable victory in an area considered a BJP stronghold.

Akhilesh Yadav with Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi during a rally for the Lok Sabha elections in Gorakhpur in May. File photo

A major turning point was the Constitution issue, with the SP and Congress emphasising that the BJP wanted to amend it. This allegation resonated among Dalit voters. Another factor that mobilised Yadav voters in favour of the SP was the Kannauj incident, where BJP workers washed a temple after Akhilesh Yadav’s visit. Yadav took advantage of this and told the public that the BJP did not want ‘low caste’ people to visit temples, which further increased support for the SP. Besides, the absence of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) during the elections also played a crucial role. The SP successfully gave the message to BSP voters that Mayawati was secretly supporting the BJP, causing many Dalit voters, who traditionally supported the BSP, to turn to the SP.

Moreover, the SP-Congress alliance effectively ensured that each seat was contested on the basis of candidates and local issues rather than on the personality of Prime Minister Modi. For the first time in ten years, UP voters did not vote based on Modi’s name. Another factor influencing the results was the concern that Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath would be sidelined if the BJP won, as had happened in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The opposition emphasised this in its meetings and rallies and it appeared to resonate with voters. It was also suggested that internal politics and Adityanath’s low involvement in the elections contributed to the BJP’s defeat in UP.

Faizabad

Mid-Day went on the ground to understand the mood of the voters, and to our surprise, voters in Ayodhya, near the Ram Mandir, were angry with the BJP over road widening and demolition of their homes and shops. Locals claimed they have not received proper compensation, receiving only Rs 25,000 to Rs 1.5 lakh for demolished properties, which is much less than the market value. Locals also told Mid-Day that the media was not present when their houses were demolished. Some even asked Mid-Day’s reporter to leave as they did not want to speak to the media “which is biased and does not report on real issues”.

Locals also faced a lot of problems due to the security arrangements in Ayodhya, reportedly struggling to enter their homes without passes, especially if they owned more than one car. It was also alleged that outsiders, especially Gujaratis, were allotted shops for business. Stray cattle were a major problem in the rural areas of Faizabad, which was highlighted in the 2022 assembly elections but was not addressed. Issues like paper leaks and unemployment were already creating discontent towards the BJP. India Block effectively exploited caste politics, which proved to be the final blow after Singh made controversial remarks about the Constitution, which did not go down well with Dalit voters. After the Ram Mandir inauguration, the BJP was confident that any candidate could win in the name of PM Modi, but that did not happen.

Amethi

The Congress bastion was breached in 2019 by BJP’s Smriti Irani defeating Rahul Gandhi by a margin of over 50,000 votes. It was one of the most talked about and high-profile seats. This time the Congress played its cards quietly, with only the Gandhi family and Mallikarjun Kharge knowing who they would field. The BJP had assumed that either Rahul or Priyanka Gandhi would contest from Amethi, as it is their family seat. However, the announcement by the Congress to field KL Sharma surprised the BJP. By fielding its loyalist KL Sharma, the Congress made the Amethi battle low-profile. Sharma has been managing the Gandhi family’s elections for the past 41 years and is well-known and respected in Amethi.

Meanwhile, Irani, facing anti-incumbency and internal politics, struggled to retain her position. She had promised to provide sugar at Rs 13 per kg in 2019, but it did not happen. When Mid-Day visited Amethi, many voters expressed their disappointment and longing for the presence of the Gandhi family, feeling that without them Amethi has lost its importance in Delhi. During Rajiv Gandhi’s era, residents of Amethi had direct access to the PM House, which they still miss.

Like other areas, rural Amethi also had a problem of stray cattle, which forced some farmers to stop farming altogether. Local officials were indifferent to these problems. Some road construction work took place during Irani’s tenure, but many claimed it was only repair work, with no significant improvement. Irani tried to connect with voters by registering her name in Amethi and building a house there, but the locals did not like it. The BJP’s attempt to defame Sharma by calling him “chaprasi” (peon) backfired as voters did not like the derogatory term. Eventually, Sharma defeated Irani by over 1.6 lakh votes.

Rae Bareilly

In Congress’s stronghold Rae Bareli, people have voted for the party in large numbers because this time Rahul Gandhi was contesting from here. People of Rae Bareli have especially voted in the name of Gandhi family because they feel that Gandhi family does good work. Voters claim that if the party had chosen someone else after Sonia Gandhi, they would have opposed Congress; but, since Rahul Gandhi’s name has come up, the contest has become limited to one side. Gandhi won the election by a margin of 3.90 lakh votes.

Jaunpur

This is another crucial seat that the BJP was eyeing after losing it to the SP-BSP alliance in 2019. The BJP had fielded Mumbai’s Kripashankar Singh, who was once a Congress stalwart in Maharashtra but had quit the party over the Ram Mandir and Article 370 issue. He is said to be under investigation by the Income Tax Department and the Enforcement Directorate and so decided to shift his base. Singh was pitted against SP’s strong candidate Babu Singh Kushwaha, who hails from a backward community. The BSP had fielded its sitting MP Shyam Singh Yadav after local strong candidate and gangster Dhananjay Singh’s wife Shrikala Singh withdrew.

It was said that out of fear of BJP, Shrikala withdrew her name to benefit BJP, as it would have been difficult for BJP to win with her. It was also alleged that Shrikala withdrew her name because her husband was being questioned by NIA and there was a risk of him being arrested. Singh belongs to the Rajput community in Jaunpur, but this time Yadav, Dalit and Muslim citizens voted in favour of SP. Despite Dhananjay Singh’s appeal to vote for BJP, his supporters understood that they were being pressurised and hence refrained from supporting the party. As a result, the SP candidate won the seat with a total of 5,09,130 ​​votes.

Gorakhpur

UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s bastion is in the hands of sitting MP and Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan. The issues here are similar to other areas of UP, but people here are happy with the work of the Chief Minister and are voting entirely in his name. The SP alliance had fielded Bhojpuri actress Kajal Nishad from the Nishad community, where she did very well by focusing on rural Gorakhpur, but the caste maths did not work here. She lost by a margin of more than 1 lakh votes. Locals say that inflation, unemployment and exam paper leaks are major issues here, but voting is happening entirely in the name of Yogi.
 
62
Number of seats won by BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections

Uttar Pradesh 80

BJP 33
Congress 6
SP 37*
RLD 2
ASPKR 1
ADAL 1