Lok Sabha elections: Punjab’s mandate and its strange sectarian pattern
The Congress-led India Bloc defied the appeal of Modi and the BJP for the third consecutive Lok Sabha election in Punjab, winning 10 of the 13 seats in the state.
Congress itself emerged as the single largest party by winning seven seats, while the ruling AAP got three seats. It is worth noting that in Punjab, Congress and AAP were not alliance partners but were traditionally arch rivals.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) managed to retain its stronghold in Bathinda, while independent Sikh hardliners won two seats.
Despite not winning a single seat in Punjab, the BJP at least ‘significantly improved’ its vote share and emerged as an independent force in the state this time.
It was the most open election in Punjab’s history, evidenced by five-way contests in most seats, very narrow margins, and unexpected surprises – the biggest of which was the emergence of Sikh hardliners as a political force.
The downsizing of the Aam Aadmi Party, the wipeout of the Sukhbir Badal-led Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP gaining an independent foothold in the state were other important themes in this election in Punjab.
After the crushing defeat in the 2022 assembly elections, the Congress made a strong comeback in the state, winning seven seats and emerging as the single largest party. It has increased its vote share by 3 per cent to 26 per cent and has made its presence felt in all major areas of Punjab.
The most important Congress winners in the state include former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi, who won by a record margin of over 1.75 lakh votes from Jalandhar; former deputy chief minister Sukhjinder Randhawa (from Gurdaspur); PPCC president Raja Waring (Ludhiana); and socio-political activist Dr Dharamvir Gandhi (Patiala), who recently joined the Congress.
Its two former MPs, Dr. Amar Singh (Fatehgarh Sahib) and Gurjeet Aujla (Amritsar), also managed to save their seats.
The Congress managed to win the Ferozepur Lok Sabha seat after nearly 40 years. Sher Singh Gubhaya won by just 3,200 votes in a close contest, with a margin of just 13,000 votes between the winner and the fourth-placed candidate.
The Congress’ performance was attributed to the goodwill ensured by Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, a pro-poor manifesto and some good, credible candidates it fielded. There were indications that the educated middle class, salaried employees and significant sections of the Dalit population supported the Congress during these elections.
On the other hand, the Congress performed poorly in rural Malwa, where its farmer vote bank declined significantly. The party also suffered due to wrong candidate selection in Bathinda, Sangrur and Anandpur Sahib.
However, the results of this election would have been a big blow for AAP and Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who were claiming a 13-0 result during their campaign.
In this election, the party’s vote share dropped by 16 percent, from 42 percent to 26 percent.
Except Sangrur, where AAP candidate Gurmeet Hayer won by over 1.72 lakh votes, the party won only Hoshiarpur (Raj Kumar Chabbewal) and Anandpur Sahib (Malvinder Kang). Except Gurmeet Hayer, all the sitting MPs and MLAs of the party lost in this election.
There was palpable anger against the current state government among the youth, Dalits, women and salaried employees whose aspirations the government could not fulfil.
Poorly performing MLAs, weak party structure and a dull narrative (13 Bhagwant Mann in Parliament, vote against Kejriwal’s jail, etc) all contributed to the poor result.
However, despite this setback, CM Bhagwant Mann’s popularity is still very high and a large section of the population, especially the lower class farmers, small traders, the lower middle class in general and the OBC group have emerged as a significant vote bank for the AAP. The AAP government’s initiatives like free electricity and Aam Aadmi Clinics have also received a positive response from the people.
As far as the BJP is concerned, it may not have won any seats in the state but it was perhaps the biggest winner as its vote share more than doubled – from 9 per cent to 18.5 per cent.
The BJP, which was earlier limited to Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur districts of Punjab and some parts of urban Punjab, has now made its presence felt in the heartland of the state.
Its candidates have secured 2 to 3 lakh votes in traditional Lok Sabha seats as well as in urban and semi-urban seats with large Hindu population like Ludhiana, Amritsar, Jalandhar, Patiala, Ferozepur etc. Hill Fort.
The Ram Mandir issue, Modi’s personal appeal and religious polarisation in the cities, as well as the polarisation and greater radicalisation of Sikhs in parts of the state, benefited the BJP.
In almost all cities and mandi towns, BJP candidates have won a good number of votes: 5 (out of 6) assembly constituencies in urban Ludhiana voted for the BJP, as did 3 (out of 5) in Amritsar, 2 (out of 4) in Jalandhar and all 3 in Patiala. Despite vocal and outspoken opposition from farmer unions, the BJP has also managed to make inroads in rural areas, especially among sections of the Dalit community.
Meanwhile, what about the Akali Dal candidates? Despite retaining its stronghold of Bathinda – from where Harsimrat Kaur Badal, wife of SAD(B)’s Sukhbir Badal, contested – this election could prove to be the final nail in the coffin of the SAD(B).
Other seats where the Akali Dal offered some resistance were Ferozepur, Amritsar and Patiala.
Punjab’s own glorious 100-year-old party, which stood for the rights of the farmers of Punjab, Sikhs and the land and its people, is now irreversibly heading towards irrelevance.
The SAD(B)’s vote share declined by nearly 5 per cent – from 18.5 per cent to 13.4 per cent – with 10 of its candidates losing their deposits. More importantly, it has now officially slipped to the fourth spot in state politics, behind its former junior partner, the BJP.
Yes, 10 BJP candidates secured more votes than the Akali Dal candidates in this election. With the rise of hardliners, the resurgent BJP and the ruling AAP – all hungry, ruthless and out to loot their supporters, leaders and workers – only a miracle can now save the Akali Dal from political oblivion and annihilation.
Meanwhile, the BSP, which recently split from the SAD(B), contested the elections alone and got 2.49 per cent votes – mostly in its core area of Doaba.
Its three candidates – Jasvir Singh Garhi (Anandpur Sahib), Balwinder Kumar (Jalandhar) and Ranjit Kumar (Hoshiarpur) – secured a good number of votes and gave a tough fight to their former allies, especially in Anandpur Sahib and Jalandhar.
However, the biggest story of this year’s Lok Sabha elections in Punjab was the rise of radical Panthic Sikhs.
These people are not confined to any one political party but include a diverse group of people, including Khalistani veteran Simranjit Mann, whose party SAD(A) contested almost all the seats, as well as independent candidates like fiery radical preacher Amritpal Singh, currently lodged in Dibrugarh jail, and Sarabjit Singh Khalsa, son of Indira Gandhi’s assassin Beant Singh.
Of these, two independent candidates – Amritpal Singh (from Khadoor Sahib) and Sarabjit Singh (Faridkot) – managed to win by huge margins. Amritpal won by over 1.97 lakh votes, the highest margin in entire Punjab, while Sarabjit won by over 70,000 votes.
Even Simranjit Singh Mann managed to win 1.87 lakh votes from Sangrur. Other candidates including Lakha Sidhana (Bathinda), PR Mohinder Pal (Patiala), Kamaljit Brar (Ludhiana) and Raj Jatinder Singh (Fatehgarh Sahib) also managed to secure a good number of votes.
Collectively, the various sects secured 9–10 per cent of the votes in the state.
A significant section of rural Sikh youth from farming communities have become the core vote bank of the Panthic BJP.S during this election.
There could be many reasons for the rise of the Panthiks, including the decline of the moderate Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), the rise of the charismatic duo of Deep Sidhu and restless young Amritpal Singh, and the waning hopes of the BJP. shift (‘change’), hatred towards defectors, rise in drug addiction, stagnation in the agricultural economy, backlash against migrants and the polarising effect of social media networks.
Many in the national media may interpret the rise of the Panthics as a resurgence of ‘Khalistan’. However, among the people of Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot, from where Amritpal and Sarabjit were elected, empathy and emotional attachment played a more important role. Their concerns, fears and disillusionment about various political parties were a greater motivation than any dream of Khalistan.
Another notable feature of the campaign in Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot was its decentralised nature, driven by common people and using gurdwaras and religious appeals to mobilise people. Influential people, NRIs and youth in these areas all turned out to boost the campaign of the independent candidates.
The rise of neo-Panthis like Amritpal Singh and the departure of Simranjit Mann also mark a generational change in Panthic politics, where a new wave of aggressive, social media-savvy Panthis is taking over. People coming from simple backgrounds and using common idioms could replace the old feudal and familial cultic traditions Like Mann.
Questions remain, however, about the internal solidarity of the Panthics, As is evident from the public spat between Simranjit Mann and Sarabjit Singh during the elections.
The lessons of 1989, when the Panthis had an even bigger mandate – but lost it because of internal strife and family greed – are still fresh in people’s memory.
The simultaneous rise of the Panthics and the BJP is no coincidence. Their aggression and communal appeal reinforce each other.
The biggest story of this Punjab election is not the victory of Indian parties or the defeat of the Akalis, but the coming to the centre of power of forces that have been peripheral to Punjab politics until now – right-wing Sikh and Hindu political parties.
Despite the rise of the right, the pluralism of Punjab politics remains intact at the grassroots level, with the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress winning and the Aam Aadmi Party continuing to dominate – both centrist parties with a majority of the public support behind them.
However, political competition and the overall mood of the state indicate that tensions are likely to remain high until the 2027 assembly elections.
Harjeshwar Pal Singh Director of Punjab Thinks