Netanyahu is trying to keep the government united amid growing rebellion

Conservative hardliners openly promised over the weekend to exit the government if Netanyahu agreed to a deal that President Biden on Friday touted as “an Israeli proposal.”

Religious parties have threatened to withdraw support from the coalition over a court ruling due in days that could end a long-standing exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox youth.

Defense Minister Yoav Galant, from Netanyahu’s own Likud party, has demanded that the prime minister publicly commit to avoiding an indefinite Israeli occupation of Gaza.

The biggest challenge comes from opposition leader Benny Gantz, who is one of three voting members of the war cabinet along with Netanyahu and Galton. Gantz has given Netanyahu until Saturday to come up with a strategic long-term plan for Gaza, or he will step down from the war cabinet and pull his party out of the government.

The departure of Gantz, Netanyahu’s main political rival, will not bring down the government. And a no-confidence motion filed by his National Unity party in the Israeli parliament last week is unlikely to pass. But political analysts question how long Netanyahu will be able to hold on.

“The snowball has started to roll,” said Gayle Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University. “Gantz’s move is not going to directly end the coalition, but the coalition itself is starting to collapse.”

Netanyahu’s troubles worsened on Friday when Biden made public a proposal by Israel’s war cabinet for a six-week pause in fighting and a hostage swap for Palestinian prisoners – aimed at paving the way for an eventual end to the conflict. In talks with the emir of Qatar on Monday, Biden reaffirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the conditions offered to Hamas, according to a White House statement.

But Netanyahu has tried to distance himself from the proposal, and his right-wing allies have said bluntly they would try to topple his coalition if a deal is reached.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Monday that if the government “accepts this surrender offer, we will not be part of it, and will work to replace the failed leadership with new leadership.” National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said he was ready to “dismantle the government.”

Those close to Netanyahu said he is hoping to delay any breakup as long as possible, fearing that public anger over his failure to prevent the October 7 coup and free more hostages could lead to an electoral wipeout. Some suggest the prime minister wants to stay in office until the US elections in November, hoping that former President Donald Trump could replace Biden in the White House.

But according to an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, the prime minister is comfortable with the rapid pace of political developments and is prepared to make the most of the circumstances.

The official said he has no intention of stepping down, and if elections come, he will campaign on the same right-wing themes that have made him Israel’s longest-serving leader — challenging Gantz, Galant and other rivals with a soft stance in the war against Hamas and presenting himself as a shield against the Palestinian state.

“He may not be a master of military strategy, but he is a master of political maneuvering,” the official said. “You can’t ignore him.”

Indeed, Netanyahu’s chances of remaining in the coalition have improved in recent weeks. After months of trailing in opinion polls, Netanyahu held a slight lead over Gantz in a recent survey of Israelis’ choice for prime minister, though neither politician received more than 36 percent of the vote and Netanyahu remains widely unpopular.

Citing these improved survey data, US officials are highly skeptical that Gantz’s ultimatum will lead the prime minister to cave in to their demands.

Nonetheless, officials take Gantz’s threat to walk out of the war cabinet seriously and anticipate it could make its contentious dynamics even more unruly. Under one scenario, Netanyahu could be left to govern with a coalition of his ultra-Orthodox ministers, tilting decision-making even further to the right.

U.S. officials said that during repeated visits to Tel Aviv, they have witnessed a nearly constant display of backlash and bickering between Netanyahu and his political rivals. Secretary of State Antony Blinken typically prefers private, discreet meetings with a group of Israeli politicians to facilitate more-candid discussions.

Two U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive political environment, said that when rival factions are in a room together, they are often cautious in their comments, as ministers are often leaking information to Israeli media to paint political opponents in a negative light.

Yaakov Amidror, Netanyahu’s former national security adviser, disputed the US characterization. He said the war cabinet had achieved consensus on major issues, including Israel’s recent offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. He said Gantz’s ultimatum would have no impact on the prosecution of the war.

“He will name another war cabinet,” Amidror said. “What he is doing is not about war — it’s about politics.”

But Israeli analysts say Gantz’s move could inspire other rivals to Netanyahu, even within his own party, to try for power.

The prime minister’s baseline support has dropped, according to a Hebrew University poll released this month, which showed 17 percent of Likud voters were willing to withhold their vote if Netanyahu led the party into new elections.

Talshir said a right-wing candidate other than Netanyahu would be more appealing to the majority of Israelis than a center-right or center-left figure like Gantz or opposition leader Yair Lapid.

“It won’t be Netanyahu versus Gantz. It will be someone else representing the right,” he said.

Likud activists are closely watching Galant as he prepares to confront the prime minister directly. Galant’s office declined to comment.

“The key to bringing down Bibi is inside the Likud,” the Israeli official said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. “And the key to the Likud is Galant.”