Potential Trump re-election casts shadow over key world trade body meeting

Abu Dhabi:

Donald Trump’s possible re-election to the US presidency has cast a shadow over this week’s crucial meeting of the World Trade Organisation, an institution he has attacked in the past.

The conference, held in Abu Dhabi, is an opportunity to reform the strained settlement process of the three-decade-old body for international trade disputes.

But despite the presence of ministers from around the world, amid volatile geopolitics and major tensions between China and the United States, few are counting on a successful outcome.

“People are certainly extremely concerned that Trump will win and then what will he do? Will he pull the United States out of the WTO?” A diplomat said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

“It’s hard to be too optimistic these days, but we try.”

During Trump’s first term, he blocked the WTO’s ability to settle trade disputes, used the veto to obstruct leadership changes and threatened to pull the US out of it – as well as a trade war with China. began.

The impasse was not resolved until his successor Joe Biden arrived at the White House in 2021, allowing Nigerian Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to lead the 164-member organization.

He has tempered expectations of the conference bringing any major institutional reform, but hopes it will at least emphasize its importance as an international rules-based framework.

A business representative, speaking anonymously for the same reasons, said, “If Trump wins we will have to weather a storm for 4 years” and try to mitigate the damage from the “disaster”.

– ‘Everyone will suffer’ –

Analysts say there is little the body can do to protect itself in such a scenario, with the US likely to take more unilateral action if Trump is re-elected in November.

Cédric Dupont of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies said, “The Americans are plagued by what they see as extremely unfair Chinese competition, and since WTO rules don’t change anything there, they have resorted to measures contrary to these rules.” Have decided to act.” In Geneva.

He said, “The WTO will find itself between the hammer and the hammer and, of course, everyone will suffer, including the Americans.”

Sebastien Jean, associate director of the French Institute of International Relations, said the US election cycle is already hindering the country’s participation in the WTO.

“This is a politically sensitive topic and it comes with risks for anyone who touches it,” he said.

Since the Biden administration is unlikely to spend political capital on the issue, no one expects the US delegation led by Trade Representative Katherine Tai to make major concessions.

Progress on smaller common goals – such as ending subsidies that contribute to overfishing, or balancing demands on food security – could save the conference from failure.

However, the US elections and Washington’s stance are not the only obstacles to agreements.

South Asian giant India – which faces general elections this spring – as well as South Africa and China are also maintaining hardline positions in the body.

Many voices, including the head of the WTO, insist that the United States remains committed to the organization, no matter what happens next.

“At a technical level, the US is really engaged in the WTO,” said Peter Ungphakorn, a former senior information officer at the WTO Secretariat.

“The US has been constructively engaged in a wide range of WTO activities, including fisheries subsidy negotiations, and has made a number of proposals to strengthen how the WTO is working, for example on sanitary and phytosanitary measures and technical barriers Business”, he added.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)