Would a conviction cause Donald Trump to lose the election?
How much will Donald Trump’s conviction in New York’s hush-money case in November matter?
The obvious answer is that no one knows. Still, I suspect the verdict will matter, but not in a way that is easy or possible to predict.
A lot of the immediate reaction revolves around surveys. We talk about surveys not because they are so important, but because we have nothing else to go on. While the proverb goes that a drunk looks for his lost keys under a street lamp because the light is better there, we look at surveys because at least they provide some light Some, Even if it isn’t much.
the gang Polls taken since Thursday’s verdict show that more than half of Americans believe the jury was right. vote The verdict found that very few people’s opinions changed, although some people had more negative views of Trump. This is not surprising, as people’s views about the trial tend to be similar to their views about Trump.
Now, if the judge puts Trump in prison for a long period of time – which seems both impossible and unfeasible given the nature of the crime – then it is possible that people’s sentiment will become more in favor of Trump. But if it is only for a day, people’s attitude may not change much, but will become even more intense.
If the opinions reflected by the latest polling remain stable with about 150 days until November 5, one could argue that this decision will cost Trump the election. The consensus among experts across the partisan spectrum is that this election will be decided by a very small number of votes in a handful of states, so a deviation of even a few percentage points from Trump could be decisive.
But opinions are not consistent, at least not among the voters who will decide the election.
Until recently, Trump was enjoying higher favorability ratings than at any point during his presidency. The mix of nostalgia for the pre-COVID Trump-era economy and dissatisfaction with President Biden has worked better for Trump than anything he has actually done as president.
No one knows what will happen in the next five months, but it is not unreasonable to assume that over time the significance of this decision will diminish for everyone.
But given the closeness of this race and the voters who will decide it, that doesn’t mean it won’t have long-term consequences.
Many trump cards booster The decision was reacted to with such declarations “Trump just won the election.” This willingness to do so stems from the belief that outrage over the verdict would drive more voters to rally behind Trump. However, the evidence so far suggests the opposite.
It’s true that Republican outrage over the decision has galvanized Trump’s supporters in a similar way to when the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago. The result has been a massive influx of donations to Trump’s campaign, including from significant first-time donors. Given Trump’s fundraising difficulties compared to Biden, this may matter.
But one analytical error that Trump’s world constantly makes is the idea that the view of him inside the MAGA bubble extends to voters outside it. Trump’s biggest fans believe he represents America in general, which is one reason they still believe America couldn’t have voted him out in 2020.
We don’t know how this decision will change the behavior of not just voters but also candidates. If Biden exaggerates Trump’s “criminal” status, it could underscore the view that he has no solid argument for his reelection on the merits. It could also strengthen the unfounded accusation that Biden engineered the prosecution for his own benefit.
Meanwhile, if Trump listens to his biggest fans and indulges their sense of grievance — which isn’t a huge “if” — he could make the election a referendum on himself and the chaos he has brought about, rather than a referendum on Biden.
I don’t think this case should have ever been brought, but I also think it’s crazy to say that it represents “the end of the country as we know it,” as Ohio Senator J.D. Vance asserted. Indeed, it’s remarkable to see that so many people who once claimed that this lawsuit didn’t matter to voters are suddenly insisting that voters will care a lot about its outcome.
Voters will care about all sorts of things. And chances are good that, insofar as Trump’s conviction matters, it confirms views that most Americans already hold.