This time the phrases are falling flat

It is difficult to see how this can be possible unless the ruling coalition retains its old ground and also adds new ground in areas where it did not perform well last time – such as the entire southern region. Or parts of the eastern region.

In the South, the NDA alliance won 30 out of 130 seats in 2019 in five states Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana, but 25 of them came from Karnataka. However, Karnataka now has a state government of the Congress which is noted for progressive initiatives, enhancing its prestige and campaign energy, and hence it is highly unlikely that the BJP will reach 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in that state in 2019. , even for one. ,

The campaign being led by the BJP is that the party is performing well in Tamil Nadu, where last time it did not get any seat and now it is giving a tough fight in the urban areas. But the BJP campaign, positioned as an ideological challenge to the Dravidian movement, is unlikely to find resonance in a state where all regional parties trace their origins and ideologies, directly or indirectly, to Periyar’s Dravidian movement.

The DMK has also been able to run a strong campaign specifically targeting the Prime Minister and repeatedly calling him out for institutional corruption. BJP cannot get any seat here again.

Thus, with no scope for growth in the northern region, where the BJP performed maximum in 2019, and no new ground from elsewhere, it has become almost impossible for the BJP to improve its overall numbers in 2019.

In fact, given the new realities in states like Bihar and Maharashtra, the party may slip well below its self-proclaimed norms. It appears that the nickname of ‘Paltu Ram’ in Bihar has prompted JD(U) Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to switch over to the BJP side. It is difficult to see how the NDA’s JD(U)-BJP-LJP trio can win 39 out of 40 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.